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周四,在假期前的清淡交易中,美元略有下跌,消化了顯示美國經濟韌性的多項指標,同時投資者評估當選總統唐納德·特朗普可能開始一場沒有贏家的關稅戰的風險。
此次下跌進一步削弱了美元近期的漲勢。在許多交易者的假期和月底假期重疊的情況下,幾乎沒有人願意在感恩節長假前建立或持有頭寸。周四市場休市,周五交易所提前收盤。
此外,修正後的數據顯示,第三季度國內生産總值按年率增長了2.8%,符合預期,並與上個月的初步估計相同,這並未顯著提振市場對美聯儲下月再次降息的預期,盡管交易員仍然傾向于此方向,將降息的可能性略微提高至67%。

(美國初步GDP季度變化,來源:Forex Factory)
消費支出數據也未能支撐這一降息預期,數據顯示,盡管經濟保持著強勁增長的勢頭,但過去幾個月通脹的下降似乎停滯了。雖然10月耐用品訂單增長了低于預期的0.2%,但失業救濟申請數為213,000,比上周向上修正後的215,000個失業救濟申請略有下降,顯示勞動力市場依然穩健。

(美國失業救濟申請,來源:Forex Factory)
市場普遍預計,通脹可能會略微上升,但並未失控。因此,這為12月降息25個基點鋪平了道路,之後可能會暫停。然而,這一暫停可能不會是由于通脹數據,而是由于特朗普關稅的不確定性。
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隨時隨地留意市場動態
市場易受供求關系變化的影響
對關注價格波動的投資者極具吸引力
流動性兼顧深度與多元化,無隱藏費用
無對賭模式,不重新報價
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