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基本面,澳洲8月CPI數據將於今日公佈,市場預期通膨或將從7月的4.9%升至5.2%,從而結束最近的穩步下降趨勢,引發有關年底前進一步加息的討論。 9月澳洲聯邦儲備銀行利率決議上表示,暫停升息將提供時間評估升息的影響。 而當前勞動力市場條件仍然緊張。
澳洲的通膨已經達到高峰。 綜合來看,8月通膨上行是大機率事件,但是上漲原因更在於澳幣貶值和油價上漲的因素。 因此澳聯儲或想讓子彈飛會,再決定是否需要升息。 今日數據公佈後,澳元或將反彈,但是能否形成強勢的上漲需要打個問號。
技術面上,日線圖上隨機震盪指標字9月22日確認向下後,匯率並未順勢下行反而震盪三個交易日。

(澳元兌美元日線圖,來源Ultima Markets MT4)
昨日行情跌破5日短期均線,暗示震盪或將結束,等待跌破9月21日低點後即可尋找做空機會。

(澳元兌美元4小時圖,來源Ultima Markets MT4)
4小時圖上,近期的下跌並非一帆風順,在接近前低之際,隨機震盪指標卻未快速進入超賣區間。 行情或將在前低附近受到支撐,隨機震盪指標屆時將走出底背離的結構。

(澳元兌美元1小時週期圖,來源Ultima Markets MT4)
1小時週期前期的三波上漲結構完整,行情調整理論上已經結束,但是不能排除澳元將走出更長週期的調整結構,若如此則後續反彈至少看向100%的斐波那契位置。 但行情今日沒有開啟全面反彈,則行情在回踩均線後將快速下跌。

(澳元兌美元1小時週期圖,來源Ultima Markets MT4)
根據Ultima Markets MT4中的pivot指標,當日中樞價位0.64050,
0.64050之上看漲,第一目標0.64218,第二目標0.64483
0.64050之下看跌,第一目標0.63792,第二目標0.63619
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隨時隨地留意市場動態
市場易受供求關系變化的影響
對關注價格波動的投資者極具吸引力
流動性兼顧深度與多元化,無隱藏費用
無對賭模式,不重新報價
通過 Equinix NY4 服務器實現指令快速執行