NZ Dollar Sideways as Market Prices in Rate Cuts 

In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of the NZDUSD for NOV 29th, 2024. 

NZDUSD Key Takeaways 

• RBNZ rate cut: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut interest rates by 50 basis points as expected on Wednesday. As there was no unexpected 75 basis points, the New Zealand dollar rebounded against the US dollar. The bank’s latest forecast shows that the average official cash rate (OCR) will fall to 3.83% by the middle of next year, indicating that it may eventually take more gradual rate cuts. 

• Orr’s attitude: Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Orr said that if the economy develops as expected, further significant rate cuts will be made early next year. After Orr’s comments on the interest rate outlook, the New Zealand dollar slowed down its appreciation. As the market is still pricing in the impact of the rate cut, the New Zealand dollar may not be able to rise in a trend in the short term. 

Technical Analysis 

NZDUSD Daily Chart Insights 

(NZDUSD Daily Price Chart, Source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

• Stochastic oscillator: The indicator sends a bullish signal in the oversold area, and the exchange rate forms a bottom divergence pattern and then starts a strong rise. At present, the fast line indicator is close to the 50 median line. Whether the rebound can develop into a trend of rising depends on the performance of today’s exchange rate. 

• Resistance area: After the NZDUSD breaks through the downward trend line in the second half of the week, the upward trend will start. The exchange rate is currently blocked by the key resistance suppression area. If the resistance cannot be effectively broken today, the exchange rate may continue to fluctuate and adjust next week. 

NZDUSD 4-hour Chart Analysis 

(NZDUSD H4 Price Chart, Source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

• Stochastic oscillator: The indicator sends a short signal in the overbought area, and there is selling pressure in the Asian session. It is worth noting that the fast line and the slow line are entangled and oscillating. The exchange rate may not be able to clearly determine the trend direction in the short term. 

• MA support: After the red 33-period and black 65-period MAs were broken by the exchange rate, they support the further depreciation of the New Zealand dollar against the US dollar in the short term. However, if the exchange rate falls below the support of this group of MAs, the exchange rate will fall into adjustment. 

NZDUSD Pivot Indicator 

(NZDUSD M30 Price Chart, Source: Ultima Markets APP) 

• According to the trading central in Ultima Markets APP, the central price of the day is established at 0.5908, 

• Bullish Scenario: Bullish sentiment prevails above 0.5908, first target 0.5933, second target 0.5948; 

• Bearish Outlook: In a bearish scenario below 0.5908, first target 0.5856, second target 0.5842. 

Conclusion 

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