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周二,英国10月消费者价格年率上涨2.3%,几乎完全受受管制的国内能源价格上涨推动。此前9月的通胀率为1.7%,这是自2021年以来通胀率首次低于英国央行(BoE)2%的目标。

(英国CPI同比、核心CPI同比和服务业CPI同比图表,来源:ONS)
上月,英国通胀率超出预期,重新回到英国央行的目标水平,同时潜在的价格压力也有所加速。这解释了英国央行在降息问题上保持谨慎的原因。数据发布后,英镑兑美元上涨近1/3美分。然而,由于美元在纽约时段走强,英镑兑美元下跌0.24%,收于1.2651。

(英镑兑美元日线图,来源:Trading View)
服务业通胀被英国央行视为反映国内价格压力的关键指标,从9月的4.9%升至10月的5.0%,符合市场和英国央行的预期。同时,不包括能源、食品、酒精和烟草价格的核心通胀率从9月的3.2%上升至3.3%,出乎市场预料。
展望未来,英国央行警告称,新政府的财政政策可能在明年加剧通胀压力。此外,美国当选总统唐纳德·特朗普威胁要实施全面进口关税,进一步增加了全球前景的不确定性。
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