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上周五,官方数据显示,9月份英国零售销售意外增长,这与此前消费者对新政府本月稍晚公布的预算计划中可能加税的悲观预期相反。9月份的销售量增长了0.3%,超过了经济学家预期的0.3%的下降。受此影响,英镑兑美元上涨0.28%,收盘于1.3047美元。

(英镑兑美元日线价格图,来源:Trading View)
“在一段时间的高通胀导致消费者花费更多却获得更少后,我们终于看到支出增长与商品数量增加相伴而行” ,策略师约书亚·马霍尼表示。由于市场仍在评估英国央行在11月和12月会议上降息的可能性,强劲的消费数据可能会减弱宽松预期。
与此同时,预计英国央行今年至少还会降息一次,最有可能会发生在11月,但12月也有进一步降息的可能。然而,鉴于英国的通胀,尤其是服务业的通胀比美国更为顽固,且经济活动并未显著下降,英国央行在进一步下调借贷成本时可能会更加谨慎。
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