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去年除1月外,澳大利亚央行(RBA)召开11次利率会议。 自今年起,会议缩减至8次。 于2024年首次货币政策会议上,考量通膨压力降温,澳大利亚央行维持官方现金利率在4.35%不变,符合市场广泛预期。
过去两年该央行已累计升息425个基点,以遏制新冠疫情大流行后引发的通货膨胀。 尽管观察到越来越多的证据显示成本和供给端压力有所缓解,但澳大利亚央行注意到服务业通胀居高不下,埋下不确定因子,综合整体价格水准仍高于目标。
如果未来公布的经济数据需要,进一步的政策紧缩仍然是选项,澳大利亚央行官员强调,利率走向确切轨迹将取决于不断变化的通胀和就业前景以及对经济扩张持久性的最新风险评估。 另外明确说明,通胀必须令人信服地在2025年回到2-3%的目标区间,然后在2026年期中稳固,以作为最终利率政策正常化的先决条件。
澳大利亚央行委员会在声明总结时承诺,将始终保持警惕,追踪全球经济、国内需求、劳动力市场,特别是通胀的趋势,为中期货币政策的适当转向提供资讯。 在澳大利亚央行利率决议后,澳元兑美元上涨至0.65左右,自11周以来的最低点弹升。 然而,因为乐观的美国经济数据和美联储的鹰派言论降低了美国未来降息的期待,澳元的涨幅受到美元走强的箝制。

(澳大利亚联储三十年利率变化)

(AUDUSD周线图)
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