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随着7 月份零售销售反弹,月环比增长 0.5%,而 6 月份修正后为下降 0.9%,英国经济再次受到提振。这积极的零售销售数据促使英镑升值。英镑兑美元也在上周五上涨 0.72%,收盘于 1.2940。

(英镑兑美元日价格图表)
零售销售的复苏可归因于夏季折扣以及与 2024 年欧洲杯和巴黎奥运会等活动相关的购买,尤其是服装等类别。此外,由于通货膨胀率现已得到控制,并徘徊在 2% 附近,消费者也更愿意消费。
虽然第二季度经济表现出了韧性,但这可能不会对英国央行的利率轨迹产生重大影响。近期经济增长的回升可能只是暂时的,因为英国央行的政策制定者们已经强调了他们对通胀的关注。这关注尤其是在于服务业的通胀率,因为它仍然远高于英国央行 2% 的目标。市场预计英国将在年底前进一步降息,可能会在11月的会议上实施。
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