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周二,加拿大10月年化通胀率从9月的1.6%上升至2.0%,高于经济学家预期的1.9%,主要因汽油价格的降幅较上月收窄。这推高了加元,导致美元兑加元(USDCAD)下跌0.42%,收于1.3956。

(加拿大CPI年率走势图,来源:Investing.com)

(美元兑加元日线图,来源:Trading View)
高于预期的通胀报告暂时降低了12月加息规模扩大可能性的预期,但未来仍有关键数据将出炉。加拿大央行此前在10月降息50个基点,这是15年来首次在非疫情期间实施如此大幅度的降息。
因此,货币市场目前认为加拿大央行在12月12日的政策会议上降息50个基点的概率为23%,低于数据发布前的38%。此外,即将于11月29日发布的第三季度GDP数据以及12月6日的11月就业报告也可能进一步影响市场对加拿大央行政策宽松的预期。
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