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根据 MIC 11 月 24 日发布的数据,日本 10月通胀升幅高于预期。 该国10月核心消费者物价指数(不含新鲜食品价格)较去年同期上涨2.9%,为四个月来首次加速。 整体通胀率达 3.3%,超过 9 月数值的 3%。 高于预期的数据和持续的通胀增强日本央行(BOJ)让大规模货币宽松政策退场的预期。

(核心消费者物价指数,日本总务省)
同时,根据Au Jibun 银行制造业采购经理指数 (PMI),11 月日本制造业进一步出现压力迹象。 11 月整体 PMI 降至 48.1,低于 10 月的 48.7,略低于经济学家预估的 48.8。 该指数目前已连续六个月维持在 50 之收缩阈值以下。 调查数据显示,日本制造商的产量、新订单和就业持续下降,这与国内外需求疲软有关。 另外,投入原料价格持续大幅上涨。 11 月 PMI 冷淡的数据表明,在需求环境充满挑战的情况下,日本重要的制造业持续低迷。
面对市场预期,大型金融控股公司认为最关键的是日本央行已经对外宣示,在确认工资增长正在迅速加速之前,央行将不会有所改变。 且进一步指出,在过去两年的大部分时间内,日本的工资增长水平一直未达到预期水平,更别提加速增长。日本央行之所以希望提高通胀目标,就是为了促使薪资增长率上升,这被视为带动日本经济长期增长的重要引擎,也即所谓的菲利普斯曲线(Phillips Curve),代表工资上升率与通胀率之间的权衡关系。在这种效果变得显著之前,日本央行不太可能放弃其超宽松的货币政策。
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